Kramer: A betting guide to college football Week 11 – VSiN Exclusive News – News
When you know, you know. And right now, Florida fans know it.
First, let me explain. I absolutely despise the typical “fire” [insert head coach of a football team here] Columns. ”
It’s incredibly hard work, and I don’t envy the tension. I also don’t like calling people to lose their paychecks.
That’s not what I’m trying to do with Dan Mullen. Well, not exactly.
Frankly, he has done this job very well himself over the past month. And Florida almost certainly needs to move forward with a change of coach before lowering their cap further.
The Gators lost to South Carolina 40-17 on Saturday. Florida was a 20.5 point favorite.
While this is certainly the most overwhelming loss, she does have company. Mullen’s team lost to LSU as a 13-point favorite and Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite.
Florida also has losses against Alabama and Georgia.
It’s frankly weird to see any Gators team with a 4-5 record at this point in the season. When you consider that this was the pinnacle of sport under Urban Meyer – whatever your feelings about Meyer these days – the state of this program is actually hard to fathom.
But I haven’t finished. Mullen has struggled to recruit in Florida, and he’s made matters worse in recent weeks by trying to hijack those struggles at press conferences.
Florida also canceled media availability, taking a bad situation and making it worse. This is a playbook on how to TNT your football program in a month.
If anything, a lack of recruiting is the reason we came here. And as Georgia and its years of successful recruiting weave its way through everything in its path, including Florida, one can’t help but watch what’s going on in Gainesville and marvel.
I didn’t think Mullen would be fired this year; I thought he would get one more crack to fix this and he still could.
Having said that, I don’t remember a coaching meltdown quite like the one we saw. It’s fast, intense, and perhaps irreparable.
We might simply have passed the point of no return.
The aperitif: information and observations on football
1. Nowadays, ranking football teams is difficult. I know Georgia is # 1; this is the easy part. But it’s frankly a mess after that, and Week 10 really shows how weird this season has been. Alabama looked lethargic as more than a four-touchdown favorite. Cincinnati looked sluggish for a month like huge chalk. Ohio State looked sloppy against Nebraska. And Oregon and Oklahoma are good but imperfect. What does it mean? It just might be the year of Georgia. As someone heavily invested in UGA futures, that sounds lovely. But CFB rarely goes the way we think it is.
2. I tell myself that I’m not going to get mad at the college football playoff standings, and I can’t help myself. No matter how many times we do this ridiculous show in season, it doesn’t get any easier to digest. While I had a lot of trouble with the top ranking last week, my most glaring take-away point is: I miss computers. At least they couldn’t fall into a mutilated logic that contradicts itself naturally. Computers, aka the BCS, spew out rankings without bias. You might not agree, but you at least accepted it. We need new playoffs with conference championship hooks and overall squads decided by formula rather than people. This system is still young, and it is already tired.
3. Let’s talk about Stanford. David Shaw’s side were absolutely wiped out 52-7 by Utah at home on Friday night. It was one of the worst football first halves I’ve seen all year, and I say it without a hint of hyperbole. While Stanford closed as an 11-point dog, which speaks volumes, it was brutal. The Cardinal is now 3-6 with three big losing games to go. While Shaw has been superb during his tenure, the downfall in recent years, marked by this year’s trough, is undeniable. Oh, and he makes almost $ 9 million a year. It is one to watch out for.
4. I missed Texas very much. I thought Steve Sarkisian would have an immediate impact, and kindness was wrong. The Longhorns, like Florida, are now 4-5. They have lost four straight games and haven’t covered a gap in that streak. Sark will have time to fix it and bring in his own players (probably), but it’s hard to characterize this start as anything but difficult.
5. Bryce Young is still Heisman’s favorite, and I understand that. But Alabama’s best football player is linebacker Will Anderson, and it’s not even close. The second-year linebacker terrorized LSU on Saturday, which is essentially what he’s done to every opponent this year. Anderson has 10.5 sacks (second in the nation) and 21 tackles for a loss. Why don’t we talk about him more for the Heisman?
6. We need to talk about Matt Araiza. Who is Araiza, you ask? He is the best bettor in the country and one of the best players to come out of this position for quite some time. The San Diego State Special Team is averaging nearly 52 yards per punt, though that doesn’t do it justice. Against Hawaii on Saturday, he hit a ball that nearly traveled the entire football field in the air. Oh, and he’s hitting goals from the field. He could be Superman.
The buffet: the five best games of the weekend
No.12 Texas A&M (-1, 55.5) to No.12 Ole Miss
While Texas A&M’s defense may not be at Georgia’s historic level, this is the closest thing to it at BFC. On Saturday he shone against Auburn. The Aggies allowed just three points and easily covered the 4.5 point spread. A&M has now won and covered in four straight games, allowing just 31 points in the last three. But Ole Miss could certainly dispute that. The Rebels have covered the spread in three of the last four games. On Saturday they managed to defeat former head coach Huge Freeze and Liberty, although it wasn’t a dazzling performance. The offense, which was sometimes superb, has become a little more stagnant. While the home pitch will help, this team needs to return to their most explosive form. If he can do it, he can definitely win this game.
No.4 Oklahoma (-6.5, 64) to No.18 Baylor
Baylor’s loss to TCU takes some of the juice out of this one, though it’s still a huge game in many ways. Oklahoma, of course, are still undefeated despite a series of disappointing performances throughout the season. Lately, things have improved. The Sooners are 3-1 ATS in the last four games – the only loss being the particular performance against Kansas. Baylor was one of the hottest teams in football before last week’s loss; the Bears lost outright to TCU in their first game without Gary Patterson as the favorite with 7.5 points. Still, playing at home, where Baylor is a perfect ATS, should help a lot.
No.1 Georgia (-20, 54.5) in Tennessee
Flights are fun. They could also be quite good. But at the very least, they’re fun. This is clear after Tennessee beat Kentucky 45-42, covering the one-point gap after a week of interesting line movement. I am curious to see if this attack, which should test the Georgian defense as it has not yet done, can finally move this historic group. The total tells me maybe, unless we expected the Bulldogs to do a lot of the heavy lifting. And it is very possible. Georgia, after starting a bit slow against Missouri, ended up activating it. Although Kirby Smart’s team failed to cover the 40-point gap against Missouri, it was not far off. And this spread is really a testament to the dominance of this team. It’s still a road test. Not sure I’ll be on Flights, but it will be worth a look throughout the week.
No.23 Penn State (-1, 49.5) vs. No.9 Michigan
Penn State is having an odd month, although the Nittany Lions find themselves as a short favorite against a top 10 team. The loss to Illinois could have been a fatal blow this season, but Penn State rebounded well on the weekend. last end against Maryland. It wasn’t explosive or dominant, but James Franklin’s side covered the 10-point gap. And the defense, which played pretty well even in defeats, was superb. Stylistically, Michigan is there. The Wolverines clinched a Jim Harbaugh-ian 29-7 victory over Indiana, which was a nice comeback from the Michigan state debacle the week before. For me Michigan is the better team in this game. I said that before Michigan State, and it blew up in my face. I’m tempted to test it again despite Harbaugh’s issues in games like this.
Wake Forest No.13 (-2, 66.5) v North Carolina State No.21
It was perhaps the most entertaining game of the whole weekend. In fact, pretty much every Wake Forest game is a must-see at this point. The Demon Deacons ultimately lost to North Carolina after taking an early lead, and they nearly covered the 2.5-point gap. QB Sam Hartman has been a star, and I see no reason why this shouldn’t continue. But can Wake stop anyone? More specifically, can he stop the state of North Carolina? The Wolfpack are 6-3 ATS this season, have won six of seven games and the defense has allowed just 27 combined points in the past two weeks. This group is likely to practice this week, however, and I might see another touchdown frenzy break out. I like the finish.
Last call: separation plans on other important games
# 16 Auburn (-5, 52.5) ââvs. Mississippi State: The two teams come out disappointing (but different defeats). I’m very curious to see what kind of response we will get from Bo Nix after an anemic weekend.
No.6 Ohio State (-19, 63.5) vs. Purdue: The Boilermakers have conquered another top-five team, although punters clearly think it ends there. That’s a huge number and a lot to think about.
No. 25 Pittsburgh (-6, 75) vs North Carolina: Thursday evening! And not only is it a Thursday night game, but it’s the kind we absolutely love. If you like playing quarterback, this is for you.